Wednesday, December 5, 2018

Dow is going to recover after a loss

Dow loss

After the collapse on Wall Street because of renewed fears of the recession on Wednesday, investors on the European stock exchanges went to diving. By the afternoon, the Dax lost 0.7 percent to 11,255 points, the EuroStoxx50 also fell. By contrast, the car values ​​were slightly better.
After the statements of Trump contradict those of his own staff, the stockbrokers slowly realize that no one knows exactly what had been agreed between China and the US at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, said market analyst Milan Cvetkovic of AxiTrader. "Even though the hope that the trade dispute will be off the table at least in the short term prevails, the topic is likely to leave the stock market busy for some time due to uncertainties."
After the meeting of German motorists with US President Donald Trump and other representatives of the government in Washington, some investors relied on a relaxation in the European-American trade conflict. The US stock exchanges remained closed because of a state action for ex-president George Bush, who died on the weekend. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones had lost a good three percent.
"Uncertainty is moving back into the focus of investors," said Expert Salah Bouhmidi of the analyst DailyFX. "Too many risk fronts intimidate market participants and leave only a few to dream of a year-end rally." Brexit, Crimea crisis and the dispute over the disarmament treaty between the US and Russia pushed the mood. Against this background, some investors in Frankfurt headed for the "safe haven" Bunds. Their purchases pushed the 10-year yield to a six-month low of 0.242 percent.
Investors were also concerned about the convergence of short and long-dated US bond yields. Stockbrokers speak of an "inverse yield curve" when short-dated bonds yield more returns than long-dated bonds. This usually announced a recession in the past.

Economic worries on Wall Street

With a worried expression, investors also looked to London. There, the British Prime Minister Theresa May conceded two slippers in the lower house. Among other things, MEPs secured a say in the next steps should the Brexit deal negotiated with the EU fail in the vote scheduled for 11 December. As the parliamentarians on this issue are hopelessly divided, the risk of a disorderly Brexit without a contract on the future relationship between the UK and the EU, warned Commerzbank analyst Thu Lan Nguyen. The pound sterling remained at $ 1.2770, in line with its monthly low of $ 1.2661.

The visit of the bosses of German carmakers with US involvement in Washington in the face of Trump's customs threats caused a lot of talks. Volkswagen, BMW, and Daimler announced after a peak meeting on Tuesday with government officials in greater commitment in the US. At the round, Trump also participated at times. The shares of the three major German carmakers, however, made up only a small part of their losses on Tuesday and rose by about half a percent each. The biggest winner in the Dax was Bayer with a plus of 1.3 percent. The pharmaceutical and agribusiness group should be more geared towards returns. Already last week, Bayer had announced plans to reduce its global workforce to around 12,000 by the end of 2021 to a total of 118,000 jobs.

DOW-FLASH: US leading index loses around 2 percent

In addition, Brexit also weighed on sentiment after British Prime Minister Theresa May suffered a major defeat at the start of deliberations in the British House of Commons. In any case, May will have little chance of reaching a majority for their agreement on Britain's exit from the EU in the planned vote on December 11 in parliament.

From an industry perspective, insurers' papers, in particular, were under pressure to sell. Traders cut back the losses, particularly on low-interest rates on longer-dated bonds in the US bond market. Allianz papers were at a discount of 2.3 percent at the Dax end. The prices of Munich Re (Munich Reinsurance Company) and Hannover Re each fell by around 1.8 percent.

It was even better for the shares of Bayer. They recovered in the course of their initial losses and noted as Dax leaders recently 1.2 percent firmer. CFO Wolfgang Nickl announced further dividend increases and possible share buybacks. In addition, following the acquisition of Monsanto, the pharmaceutical and agrochemical group wants to accelerate its revenue and earnings growth by 2022 and reduce its high debt levels.

In the bond market, the current yield fell from 0.15 percent the day before to 0.11 percent. The bond index Rex (REX Total Price Index) rose by 0.17 percent to 141.83 points. The Bund Future lost 0.14 percent to 162.03 points. The euro last traded at $ 1, 1357.
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